|Per Valentina Romei of the Financial Times;
“Economists expect the US economy continued adding jobs in November despite rising interest rates and concerns of a looming recession.
Wall Street expects the number of people on US payrolls rose by 200,000 in November from the previous month, according to economists polled by Reuters. This would be the lowest job creation since December 2020 and down from the 261,000 jobs added in October. However, the robust employment gains would show strength in an already tight labour market that is in contrast with other sectors of the economy, such as the housing market or retail sales, which are struggling under the aggressive pace of interest rate increases, according to Sandra Horsfield, economist at Investec.
US job creation has come in stronger than expected for the last seven months, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its policy rates by historically large 0.75 percentage points in the last four meetings as it battles with high inflation. “The Fed will be hoping for some loosening in labour market conditions in next week’s report to justify a smaller increment policy rate hike at its next meeting in December, as is widely expected,” said Horsfield.
Kevin Cummins, chief economist at NatWest said that many firms have signaled they may need to reassess their hiring needs, but “so far at least, there still appears to be enough of a backlog at other firms helping keep job growth strong heading into year end”. He, however, expects US job gains will slow in 2023 as the economy is likely to tip into a recession that he forecasts will last through the first half of next year. Valentina Romei”
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